Portfölj & risk
Drawdowns: the price of crypto returns
Bitcoin has had several drawdowns above 70% and recovered to new highs each time. That is comforting until you are inside one.
The maths of recovery
A 50% fall needs a 100% rise to break even. An 80% fall needs 400%. That asymmetry is why limiting losses matters more than maximising gains.
Calculate in advance what a 60% fall does to your portfolio in euros, not percentages.
Historical bear markets in perspective
Bitcoin fell sharply in 2011, 2014-2015, 2018 and 2022, with peak-to-trough declines of roughly 70% to 85%, lasting months to over a year.
Boredom is underrated: many investors exit not during the crash but during the silence after it.
A plan that survives a bear market
Write down what you do at -30%, -60% and -80%: buy, do nothing or rebalance, and with what amount.
Keep income and buffer separate from the portfolio. Needing money during a drawdown is the main cause of permanent loss.
- Write scenarios before the fall
- Keep the cash buffer fully separate
- Limit how often you check per week
When selling is the right call
Selling is rational when your original reason has lapsed: the project fails to deliver, the assumption broke, or your situation changed.
Selling because the price fell is a reaction, not a reason.
Vanliga frågor
How deep can bitcoin fall?
Historically 70% to 85% from the top has happened several times. Plan assuming it can happen again.
How long does a bear market last?
Previous cycles ran roughly one to two years from top to bottom, followed by a long sideways phase.
Should I buy during a decline?
Only by a predefined rule and with money you can miss.
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