How do you value a crypto asset?.

Stock-to-Flow comes from commodities. Gold scores high because the above-ground stock dwarfs annual mining output. Bitcoin acquired the same profile through its halvings: every four years new issuance halves while the stock keeps growing.

The best-known variant (PlanB, 2019) fitted a power relation between S2F and market value. We show the ratio and the implied price, plus the gap with the market — that gap is often more informative than the model price itself.

On a log-log scale bitcoin's price has tracked a straight line since 2009, suggesting a power relation between time and price similar to growth patterns in networks and cities.

The model gives no top or bottom, only a long-term corridor. The distance to that corridor indicates how stretched or washed-out the market is.

The simplest model here, and useful precisely for that: it measures only how stretched price is versus its own long-term average.

Historically, readings below 1 marked accumulation phases and above 2.4 euphoric phases. It says nothing about value, only about position in the cycle.

NVT compares a network's value with the economic activity running over it. A high NVT means the market pays a lot for little throughput; a low NVT implies more activity per euro of market value.

The original uses on-chain transaction volume. We show a proxy based on reported trading volume, since that is public and comparable across coins. Use it for relative and trend comparisons.

The model institutional analysts use most, because it needs no historical curve. Pick a reference market — say the roughly EUR 20 trillion of above-ground gold, or global cross-border payments — and estimate the share migrating to this asset.

The output is a sensitivity analysis, not a forecast: it shows how much adoption is already priced in. Set the share so the model price equals the market price and you see what the market implicitly expects today.

Smart-contract networks collect transaction fees — real, measurable revenue, part of which Ethereum burns, accruing directly to holders. That lets you value a chain like a software business: revenue times a multiple.

Enter estimated annual network revenue and pick a multiple consistent with growth expectations. Mature networks typically warrant a lower multiple than fast-growing ones.

Many assets keep a large part of supply out of circulation: XRP sits in escrow, other projects have vesting schedules for teams and investors. Fully diluted valuation (FDV) shows what you pay today if that future supply is counted.

The gap between market cap and FDV is one of the most underrated risk factors. The wider it is, the more structural sell pressure can reach the market.