Explanation
It describes history remarkably well, but a good fit after the fact is not a forecast. Small changes in the starting point produce large differences in the projection.
Growth on a log scale
The power-law model holds that bitcoin's price follows a straight line over the long term when both price and time are plotted logarithmically. Networks more often grow along such a power relationship than exponentially: growth slows gradually but does not stop. That fits actual history better than a model resting on halvings alone.
What it can and cannot do
The model gives a broad band within which price historically moved, with a lower and upper bound spanning decades. Useful to see whether the market is extremely expensive or cheap relative to its own history. Useless for predicting next month — the band is far too wide for that.
Key takeaways
- A band, not a point forecast.
- Growth slows but does not stop.
- The past guarantees nothing about the future.