Explanation
Small deviations of a few tenths of a percent are normal during congestion. A deviation lasting hours points to doubt about the reserve or blocked redemptions.
How a depeg unfolds
First doubt appears: a report about the reserve, a bank in trouble, a delayed redemption. Large holders exit first, pushing the exchange price below one euro or dollar. Smaller holders see it and follow. Once redemption itself stalls, the arbitrage that normally restores the peg disappears and the gap can widen fast.
What to do in the moment
Panic selling into a thin market usually gives the worst outcome: you sell exactly when the spread is widest. First check whether the issuer is still redeeming normally and whether the gap shows on only one exchange. With fully backed coins the peg historically recovered within days; with unbacked models it never returned.
Key takeaways
- Check whether redemption still works.
- One exchange below peg is not yet a depeg.
- Unbacked models rarely recover.
Frequently asked questions
+Is 0.997 already a depeg?
Small deviations are normal market noise. Analysts only speak of a real depeg with sustained deviations above one percent.